Voter Behavior and Terrorism-Related Arrests: Understanding the Electoral Successes of Far-Right Political Parties in European Parliament Elections

by Sage McCarty, samccarty@chapman.edu

Chapman University

National Conference on Undergraduate Research 2024

 

Abstract

European countries’ domestic politics are marked by threats of terrorism; meanwhile, electoral successes among far-right political parties are increasing within the European Parliament.  Previous research revealed that a given European Union member country’s total numbers of terrorism-related arrests and terrorist attacks in a given year are not correlated with far-right support in the country’s elections for the European Parliament during the following year.  Considering the effects that terrorism has on European countries, more insight is required into whether more specific variables related to terrorism, as differentiated based on motives, are correlated with the electoral success of far-right parties.  Therefore, this new project seeks to reveal whether support for the far-right in the European Parliament elections of given year is correlated with variables pertaining to religiously inspired/jihadist terrorism and/or right-wing extremist terrorism during the election year and/or the previous year.  These variables include the numbers of arrests related to religiously inspired/jihadist terrorism and the numbers of arrests related to right-wing terrorism in given years.  As related to these variables, this project uses correlations to test the alternative hypotheses that support for far-right parties is comparatively low in the context of a high number of arrests related to right-wing extremist terrorism and support for far-right parties is comparatively high in the context of a high number of arrests related to religiously inspired/jihadist terrorism.  Relevant data is pulled from the European Parliament's election results and Europol's European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Reports.  This project seeks to uncover whether voter support for far-right parties is correlated with terrorist threats in Europe, as quantified by numbers of terrorism-related arrests in a given year, allowing for a greater understanding of voter behavior in Europe.

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